Thursday, April 28, 2011

Will your Favorite Shows be Renewed or Cancelled?: 4th Edition

It's time for another update to my predictions on which shows will be renewed or cancelled. There are many changes to shows' fates as well as updated analysis in the post. All that is after the jump.

The shows will have one of the following next to them:
  • Already Renewed (for shows with an early renewal)
  • Likely to be Renewed (for shows that have a greater then 50% chance of being renewed)
  • On the Bubble (for shows that could go either way in terms of renewal or cancellation
  • Likely to be Cancelled (for shows that have a less then 50% chance of being renewed)
  • Already Cancelled (for shows that have been cancelled by their respective network already)

The Bachelor: Likely to be Renewed
Better With You: Likely to be Cancelled
Body of Proof: Likely to be Renewed
Brothers & Sisters: On the Bubble
Castle: Already renewed.
Cougar Town: Already renewed.
Dancing With the Stars: Likely to be Renewed
Desperate Housewives: Likely to be Renewed
Detroit 1-8-7: Likely to be Cancelled
Grey’s Anatomy: Already renewed.

Happy Endings: On the bubble*
The Middle: Already renewed
Modern Family: Already renewed
Mr. Sunshine: Likely to be Cancelled
No Ordinary Family: Likely to be Cancelled
Off the Map: Likely to be Cancelled
Private Practice: Already renewed.
V: Likely to be Cancelled

Like I said in the last post, ABC is not in the best of shape. They haven't premiered any successful new dramas in the past two years. This season, they only have one drama that is certain to be renewed that hasn't been (Desperate Housewives) and one marginal drama. The rest of the batch are probably not going to come back next year. I don't expect Paul Lee to be lenient with the shows that aren't doing very well.

Detroit 1-8-7No Ordinary Family, and Off the Map are stone cold dead. There is no chance that the show will be back next year. Brothers and Sisters is ABC's only marginal show. This is a show that could go either way. Its ratings haven't been great, but they haven't been terrible either. It also is in its fifth season and the cast contracts are up. I could really see this show coming back but I could also see it getting cancelled. It probably depends on the quality ABC's pilots, if they have a great batch of pilots they might not need to renew this show. It took a lot of thought before I downgraded V. It's ratings are in the range where it's just below the cancellation line. I don't think that ABC will renew an expensive, visual effects heavy show that is averaging below a 2.0 in the 18-49 demographic (which is what the networks use to set ad rates). I see this show as more likely to be cancelled then renewed. Body of Proof premiered well and did decently in its second and third episodes so I see that show coming back next year.

On the comedy side, Better with You's ratings have been pretty bad, and it's the lowest rated show in the comedy block. It has almost no chance of coming back next year. Mr. Sunshine premiered well but its ratings have dropped. It also didn't increase very much following a new Modern Family after following repeats for two weeks and its ratings were pretty bad following repeats. Although other people think there's a slim chance the show comes back, I don't see it returning next year. It's been a very up and down road for Happy Endings. It premiered decently, dropped in week two, and rebounded this week. I'll have to see where it stabilizes in the 10PM timeslot before I can accurately predict renewal, but if it maintains this week's 2.1, its chances are good.

The Amazing Race: Already Renewed
The Big Bang Theory: Already Renewed
Blue Bloods: On the Bubble

Chaos: Already Cancelled*
Criminal Minds: Likely to be Renewed
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior: On the Bubble
CSI: Likely to be Renewed
CSI: Miami: Likely to be Renewed
CSI: NY: On the Bubble
The Defenders: Likely to be Cancelled
The Good Wife: On the Bubble
Hawaii Five-0: Likely to be Renewed
How I Met Your Mother: Already Renewed
Mad Love: Likely to be cancelled
Medium: Already Cancelled
The Mentalist: Likely to be Renewed
Mike & Molly: Likely to be Renewed
NCIS: Already Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles: Likely to be Renewed
Rules of Engagement: Likely to be Renewed
$#*! My Dad Says: Likely to be Cancelled
Survivor: Already Renewed
Two and a Half Men: Technically Renewed
Undercover Boss: Already Renewed

Not much has changed for CBS over the past two weeks because of the amount of repeats they've been airing.

CBS is in the position, and has been for awhile, of having more shows that do well then they have room for on their schedule for next season. 

CBS likes to premiere 3-5 new dramas each year. Expect them to cancel four to five of their drama hours from this season in order to have room to debut these new shows. Medium, Chaos, and The Defenders will take three of those slots but at least two of Blue BloodsCSI: NY, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior or The Good Wife to be cancelled in order have room for them to debut new dramas for next year. I can't tell which one of these will be back, but I could see any combination of these shows coming back or getting cancelled. Each of them has pros and cons for renewal and with CBS it's very difficult to predict what they will choose to bring back. CSI: Sunglasses (aka the best comedy on TV right now) has dropped over the past few weeks, I'm not quite ready to move it back to the bubble, but it's very close.

On the comedy side, there is no way Shit My Dad Says and Mad Love will be back next year. They are the lowest rated comedies in the block and their ratings are probably too low to swallow. They have 3 strong comedies (Big Bang TheoryHIMYM, and Mike & Molly) and one reliable benchwarmer (Rules of Engagement) to build around for next year and probably don't need to have them as a back up plan for Tow and a Half Men

90210: Already Renwed*
America’s Next Top Model: Already Renewed*
Gossip Girl: Already Renewed*
Hellcats: Likely to be Cancelled*
Life Unexpected: Already Cancelled
Nikita: On the Bubble*
One Tree Hill: Likely to be Renewed*
Shedding for the Wedding: Likely to be Cancelled
Smallville: Final Season
Supernatural: Already Renewed*
The Vampire Diaries: Already Renewed*

The CW went ahead and renewed the five highest rated shows on the network. There were no surprises in this latest batch of renewals. What that leaves is 5 slots for next season open on their schedule. The fact of the matter is I don't see them debuting more then three new shows next season. They have very limited resources compared to other broadcast networks and they can't debut a massive amount of shows. One of those open slots will be filled by One Tree Hill. With what I heard about the cast resigning, the show's renewal is almost a given. While Nikita's ratings haven't been great on any level, they've been marginal for the CW. I definitely see this show being renewed for next season (and probably finding its home on Friday's after Supernatural). However, Hellcats's ratings have been complete and total crap (even by CW standards). There's no way the show returns next year, its ratings are just too low.

American Dad: Already renewed.
American Idol: Already Renewed
Bob’s Burgers: Already Renewed
Bones: Likely to be Renewed
Breaking In: On the Bubble*
Chicago Code: On the Bubble*
The Cleveland Show: Already renewed.
Family Guy: Already Renewed*
Fringe: Already Renewed
Glee: Already renewed.
The Good Guys: Already Cancelled
House: Likely to be Renewed
Human Target: Likely to be Cancelled
Lie to Me: On the Bubble
Raising Hope: Already renewed.
Running Wilde: Already canceled.
The Simpsons: Already renewed.
Traffic Light: Likely to be Cancelled

FOX is in the situation where it has more bubble shows then spots on the schedule next year.

FOX programs 10 hours between Monday and Friday (Sunday is their animated block and I don't see them changing that, ever). They already have committed to The X-Factor (2-3 hours) and Terra Nova (1 hour) for next year. On top of this they have HouseBonesRaising Hope, Fringe, and Glee that either have been renewed or will be renewed for next year. That leaves room for one new comedy and one or two one-hour slots for next year. There will probably be a new drama thrown into one of them which leaves room for one show. This could be a Gordon Ramsey cooking show but it could also be a show whose ratings are marginal. At this point, I would say that Lie to Me and the Chicago Code are the only marginal shows on the network. Lie to Me has proven that it can be put anywhere and it can still do decently, so I see it being brought back with a 13 episode order. The Chicago Code has stabilized in the ratings, but not at a very high level. I'm moving it back to the bubble because I'm beginning to think that the chances of renewal are about 50%. I do think that they will only bring one back, it's just a matter of which one. Human Target is dead, even if it did decently after American Idol

Bob's Burgers was renewed for next year. It had numbers where it wasn't certain for renewal, but it wasn't certain for cancellation either. But FOX is going to bring it back for more episodes next year. There is no way that Traffic Light comes back next year. Breaking In premiered well and it has the post Idol timeslot but its ratings haven't been anything special. I could see it getting renewed due to high ratings, or cancelled due to the bad retention. It's difficult to predict, but if I was betting money, I would bet for at least a small order for next year..

30 Rock: Already renewed.
The Biggest Loser: Likely to be Renewed
The Cape: Already Cancelled
Celebrity Apprentice: Likely to be Renewed
Chase: Already Cancelled
Chuck: Likely to be Cancelled* :(
Community: Already Renewed
The Event: Likely to be Cancelled
Friday Night Lights: Final Season begins airing April 15th
Harry’s Law: On the Bubble
Law & Order: Los Angeles: Likely to be Cancelled*
Law & Order: SVU: Likely to be Renewed
The Office: Already Renewed
Outsourced: Likely to be Cancelled
Parenthood: Likely to be Renewed
Parks and Recreation: Already Renewed
The Paul Reiser Show: Already Cancelled*
Perfect Couples: Pulled from Schedule

NBC is a mess, there's no other way to say it. It's ratings are terrible and it has failed to produce a successful new show this season and hasn't produced a huge amount of shows with decent ratings over the past few years. Bob Greenblat has some major decisions to make as he tries to rebuild the network over the next few years, including which shows to renew and cancel.

On the drama side, NBC has two shows that are almost certain to return next year: Parenthood and Law and Order: SVUHarry's Law did decently for most of its run but it dropped significantly with its final episode. I don't think that a show that gets a 1.4 in the demo on any network is likely to be renewed. That's why it has been downgraded to on the bubble. The decision to downgrade Chuck is one of the most difficult decisions I have made on the list. I just don't know how low NBC can go in terms of the floor for renewal. The 1.3 that Chuck has been pulling over the past two episodes has not been good. While I don't think that cancellation is certain, it wouldn't be unjustified. I could also see the show getting renewed as well. The show is close enough to syndication to get a pity syndication renewal and ti still has that loud and vocal fanbase. It's certainly not a Monday at 8PM show anymore, but I could easily see this coming back in a Friday timeslot or being renewed for emergency filler. The chances are less then 50%, but I'm remaining hopeful as ever. Is The Event being cancelled the Event? If so then the Event will happen in May.

On the comedy side, The OfficeParks & Rec, and Community have all been renewed. I'm glad to see that NBC is committed to good comedy. Perfect Couples and Outsourced will be cancelled at the end of the season. Perfect Couples is being removed from the schedule and the star of Outsourced has signed onto another pilot. Those are signs of sure cancellation. The Paul Reiser Show was cancelled before appearing in the post.

Like I said, NBC is a huge mess (the fact that Chuck could get another season shows this) and Robert Greenblat has some major decisions to make.

So that's a wrap on the fourth edition of this post. Have any thoughts on anything I discussed? Leave them in the comments.

(Unrelated side note, please vote in the side poll for my summer TV coverage. For more information, go to this post.)

1 comment:

  1. Darn shame about 'Outsourced' - very good show.


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