Saturday, April 9, 2011

Will Your Favorite Shows be Renewed or Cancelled?: 3rd Edition

It's been another slow week with this week, so I thought I would keep the 2 week update schedule and update this post. You can find the updated post with a few updated fates and updated analysis after the jump.

The shows will have one of the following next to them:
  • Already Renewed (for shows with an early renewal)
  • Likely to be Renewed (for shows that have a greater then 50% chance of being renewed)
  • On the Bubble (for shows that could go either way in terms of renewal or cancellation
  • Likely to be Cancelled (for shows that have a less then 50% chance of being renewed)
  • Already Cancelled (for shows that have been cancelled by their respective network already)

The Bachelor: Likely to be Renewed
Better With You: Likely to be Cancelled
Body of Proof: Likely to be Renewed*
Brothers & Sisters: On the Bubble
Castle: Already renewed.
Cougar Town: Already renewed.
Dancing With the Stars: Likely to be Renewed
Desperate Housewives: Likely to be Renewed
Detroit 1-8-7: Likely to be Cancelled
Grey’s Anatomy: Already renewed.
The Middle: Already renewed
Modern Family: Already renewed
Mr. Sunshine: Likely to be Cancelled*
No Ordinary Family: Likely to be Cancelled
Off the Map: Likely to be Cancelled
Private Practice: Already renewed.
V: Likely to be Cancelled

Like I said in the last post, ABC is not in the best of shape. They haven't premiered any successful new dramas in the past two years. This season, they only have one drama that is certain to be renewed that hasn't been (Desperate Housewives) and one marginal drama. The rest of the batch are probably not going to come back next year. I don't expect Paul Lee to be lenient with the shows that aren't doing very well.

Detroit 1-8-7No Ordinary Family, and Off the Map are stone cold dead. There is no chance that the show will be back next year. Brothers and Sisters is ABC's only marginal show. This is a show that could go either way. Its ratings haven't been great, but they haven't been terrible either. It also is in its fifth season and the cast contracts are up. I could really see this show coming back but I could also see it getting cancelled. It probably depends on the quality ABC's pilots, if they have a great batch of pilots they might not need to renew this show. It took a lot of thought before I downgraded V. It's ratings are in teh range where it's just below the cancellation line. I don't think that ABC will renew an expensive, visual effects heavy show that is averaging below a 2.0 in the 18-49 demographic (which is what the networks use to set ad rates). I see this show as more likely to be cancelled then renewed. Body of Proof premiered well and did decently in its second and third episodes so I see that show coming back next year.

On the comedy side, Better with You's ratings have been pretty bad, and it's the lowest rated show in the comedy block. It has almost no chance of coming back next year. Mr. Sunshine premiered well but its ratings have dropped. It also didn't increase very much following a new Modern Family after following repeats for two weeks and its ratings were pretty bad following repeats. Although other people think there's a slim chance the show comes back, I don't see it returning next year.

The Amazing Race: Already Renewed
The Big Bang Theory: Already Renewed
Blue Bloods: On the Bubble
Criminal Minds: Likely to be Renewed
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior: On the Bubble
CSI: Likely to be Renewed
CSI: Miami: Likely to be Renewed
CSI: NY: On the Bubble
The Defenders: Likely to be Cancelled
The Good Wife: On the Bubble
Hawaii Five-0: Likely to be Renewed
How I Met Your Mother: Already Renewed
Mad Love: Likely to be cancelled
Medium: Already Cancelled
The Mentalist: Likely to be Renewed
Mike & Molly: Likely to be Renewed
NCIS: Already Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles: Likely to be Renewed
Rules of Engagement: Likely to be Renewed
$#*! My Dad Says: Likely to be Cancelled
Survivor: Already Renewed
Two and a Half Men: Technically Renewed
Undercover Boss: Already Renewed

Not much has changed for CBS over the past two weeks.

CBS is in the position, and has been for awhile, of having more shows that do well then they have room for on their schedule for next season. 

CBS likes to premiere 3-5 new dramas each year. Expect them to cancel four to five of their drama hours from this season in order to have room to debut these new shows. Medium and The Defenders will take two of those slots but two or three of Blue BloodsCSI: NY, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior or The Good Wife to be cancelled in order have room for them to debut new dramas for next year. I can't tell which one of these will be back, but I could see any combination of these shows coming back or getting cancelled. Each of them has pros and cons for renewal and with CBS it's very difficult to predict what they will choose to bring back. CSI: Sunglasses (aka the best comedy on TV right now) has improved, in the ratings, over the past couple of weeks. It looks like it has maintained the high ratings, so it will remain likely to be renewed.

On the comedy side, there is no way Shit My Dad Says and Mad Love will be back next year. They are the lowest rated comedies in the block and their ratings are probably too low to swallow. They have 3 strong comedies (Big Bang TheoryHIMYM, and Mike & Molly) and one reliable benchwarmer (Rules of Engagement) to build around for next year and probably don't need to have them as a back up plan for Tow and a Half Men

90210: Likely to be Renwed
America’s Next Top Model: Likely to be Renewed
Gossip Girl: Likely to be Renewed
Hellcats: On the Bubble
Life Unexpected: Already Cancelled
Nikita: Likely to be Renewed
One Tree Hill: On the Bubble (for cast reasons only)
Shedding for the Wedding: Likely to be Cancelled
Smallville: Final Season
Supernatural: Likely to be Renewed
The Vampire Diaries: Likely to be Renewed

The CW has not aired any new episodes so everything has remained the same, and I'm keeping the same analysis. The network starts new episodes next week.

The CW is in a position where they probably can't cancel more shows then have already been cancelled. It can only realistically launch two or three new shows next year which means that even the mediocre performers on the network will be back next year. If anything beyond Life Unexpected and Smallville is cancelled it will be Hellcats because of low ratings or One Tree Hill because of the cast and crew giving up and wanting to leave the show. There's also Shedding for the Wedding which will almost certainly not be back next year.

American Dad: Already renewed.
American Idol: Already Renewed
Bob’s Burgers: Already Renewed*
Bones: Likely to be Renewed

Breaking In: Likely to be Renewed*
Chicago Code: Likely to be Cancelled
The Cleveland Show: Already renewed.
Family Guy: Likely to be Renewed
Fringe: Already Renewed
Glee: Already renewed.
The Good Guys: Already Cancelled
House: Likely to be Renewed
Human Target: Likely to be Cancelled
Lie to Me: On the Bubble
Raising Hope: Already renewed.
Running Wilde: Already canceled.
The Simpsons: Already renewed.
Traffic Light: Likely to be Cancelled

FOX is in the situation where it has more bubble shows then spots on the schedule next year.

FOX programs 10 hours between Monday and Friday (Sunday is their animated block and I don't see them changing that, ever). They already have committed to The X-Factor (2-3 hours) and Terra Nova (1 hour) for next year. On top of this they have HouseBonesRaising Hope, and Glee that either have been renewed or will be renewed for next year. That leaves room for one new comedy and one or two one-hour slots for next year. There will probably be a new drama thrown into one of them which leaves room for one show. This could be a Gordon Ramsey cooking show but it could also be a show whose ratings are marginal. At this point, I would say that Lie to Me is the only marginal shows on the network. Lie to Me has proven that it can be put anywhere and it can still do decently, so I see it being brought back with a 13 episode order. The Chicago Code has not stabilized in the ratings yet. It returns with a new episode this Monday, that will be the telling data point for the show's renewal chance. But based on the current numbers, the show is more likely to be cancelled then renewed. As soon as I downgrade Fringe, FOX goes ahead and renews the show. The only other thing I have to say on the subject: Yay FringeHuman Target is dead, even if it did decently after American Idol

Bob's Burgers was renewed for next year. It had numbers where it wasn't certain for renewal, but it wasn't certain for cancellation either. But FOX is going to bring it back for more episodes next year. There is no way that Traffic Light comes back next year. Breaking In premiered well and it has the post Idol timeslot, so look for it to be back next year.

30 Rock: Already renewed.
The Biggest Loser: Likely to be Renewed
The Cape: Already Cancelled
Celebrity Apprentice: Likely to be Renewed
Chase: Already Cancelled
Chuck: On the Bubble
Community: Already Renewed
The Event: Likely to be Cancelled
Friday Night Lights: Final Season begins airing April 15th
Harry’s Law: On the Bubble*
Law & Order: Los Angeles: (Can't say until April 12th, so On the Bubble for now) 
Law & Order: SVU: Likely to be Renewed
The Office: Already Renewed
Outsourced: Likely to be Cancelled
Parenthood: Likely to be Renewed
Parks and Recreation: Already Renewed
Perfect Couples: Pulled from Schedule*

NBC is a mess, there's no other way to say it. It's ratings are terrible and it has failed to produce a successful new show this season and hasn't produced a huge amount of shows with decent ratings over the past few years. Bob Greenblat has some major decisions to make as he tries to rebuild the network over the next few years, including which shows to renew and cancel.

On the drama side, NBC has two shows that are almost certain to return next year: Parenthood and Law and Order: SVUHarry's Law did decently for most of its run but it dropped significantly with its final episode. I don't think that a show that gets a 1.4 in the demo on any network is likely to be renewed. That's why it has been downgraded to on the bubble. Chuck has not aried any new episodes so my thoughts are the same. Chuck is really the only show that is on the bubble left. It has declined, but it has maintained the same relative position in terms of the rest of NBC. The production company is also a major factor in determining if Chuck comes back next year. They could discount the show slightly because the show is near syndication, which could be enough to allow the show to come back next year. I could see the show being either renewed (yay!) or cancelled (boo!)  Is The Event being cancelled the Event? If so then the Event will happen in May.

On the comedy side, The OfficeParks & Rec, and Community have all been renewed were all renewed last week. I had The Office and Parks and Rec as likely to be renewed and Community as on the bubble so I predicted these correctly! I'm glad to see that NBC is committed to good comedy. Perfect Couples and Outsourced will be cancelled at the end of the season. Perfect Couples is being removed from the schedule and the star of Outsourced has signed onto another pilot. Those are signs of sure cancellation. 

Like I said, NBC is a huge mess (the fact that Chuck could get another season shows this) and Robert Greenblat has some major decisions to make.

So that's a wrap on the third edition of this post. Have any thoughts on anything I discussed? Leave them in the comments.

1 comment:

  1. you should do this for cable shows too like tosh.0, burn notice, etc..
    and do a review of workaholics! funny show.


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