Thursday, September 15, 2011

Emmy Picks 2011: Who Will Win? Who Should Win?

Margo Martindale from "Justified"
Credit: FX
It's that time of year folks, the Emmys are here! I have previously announced that on Sunday I will be live blogging the ceremony, but for now, I would like to share my predictions. This post will consist three items for each category: The nominees, who will win, an who should win. I will be taking a look at comedy and drama series, the major acting awards, the major writing awards, and the major directing awards. All that is after the jump.

Outstanding Drama Series

"Boardwalk Empire"
"Friday Night Lights"
"Game Of Thrones"
"The Good Wife"
"Mad Men"

Will Win: "Mad Men", This drama should have no problem winning for it's fourth year in a row. Boardwalk Empire provides the biggest challenge Mad Men has faced, but it should not lose this category.
Should Win: "Game of Thrones", This was a very tough choice. I wanted to give it to Mad Men or The Good Wife, but I don't know too much about Mad Men (I have seen the first episode twice but nothing beyond that) and Game of Thrones just gets past The Good Wife by a hair.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama

Steve Buscemi-"Boardwalk Empire"
Michael C. Hall-"Dexter"
Kyle Chandler-"Friday Night Lights"
Hugh Laurie-"House"
Timothy Oylphant-"Justified"
Jon Hamm-"Mad Men"

Will Win: Jon Hamm, The power of "The Suitcase" should be enough to get Hamm his first Emmy.
Should Win: Timothy Oylphant, This was another very tough choice. You could come up with an argument to give each one of these actors an Emmy. In the end, I had to give it to Olyphant because he gave the best performance in the submission episodes that I have seen (aka, not the Suitcase).

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama

Connie Britton-"Friday Night Lights"
Julianna Margulies-"The Good Wife"
Kathy Bates-"Harry's Law"
Mireille Enos-"The Killing"
Mariska Hargitay-"Law and Order: SVU"
Elisabeth Moss-"Mad Men"

Will and Should Win Win: Julianna Marguiles, This category would be a lot different if I had seen either submission episodes for Britton or Moss, but I have seem Margulies's episode, and it's fantastic. She could face some competition from Moss (who has "The Suitcase"), but she was the favorite last year. This year she could have a little trouble winning, but should pull through.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama

Peter Dinklage-"Gamie of Thrones"
Josh Charles-"The Good Wife"
Alan Cumming-"The Good Wife"
Walton Goggins-"Justified"
John Slattery-"Mad Men"
Andre Braugher-"Men of a Certain Age"

Will Win: Alan Cumming, He is giving a very showy performance and he also won last year in the guest category. He could face some competition from Slattery and Emmy favorite Braugher, but he should pull through.
Should Win: Andre Braugher, This may be resentment for Men of a Certain Age's cancellation, but he is also giving a fantastic performance in this show and his submission episode. I seriously considered Goggins (who was fantastic on Justified this season), Dinklage (who is fantastic as Tyrion Lannister), and Cumming (who is giving a fantastic performance), but Braugher is giving a performance that is slightly above those three.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama

Kelly MacDonald-"Boardwalk Empire"
Archie Punjabi-"The Good Wife"
Christine Baranski-"The Good Wife"
Margo Martindale-"Justified"
Michelle Forbes-"The Killing"
Christina Hendricks-"Mad Men"

Will and Should Win: Margo Martindale, This category isn't even close. Margo Martindale gave arguably TV's best performance last season. She was brilliant as Mags Bennett. Emmy voters should recognize her talent and give her an Emmy.

Outstanding Directing for a Drama (Format: Director- Episode -"Show")

Martin Scorsese- Pilot -"Boardwalk Empire"
Jeremy Podeswa- Anastasia -"Boardwalk Empire"
Neil Jordan- The Poisoned Chalice/The Assassin -"The Borgias"
Tim Van Patten- Winter is Coming -"Game of Thrones"
Patty Jenkins- Pilot -"The Killing"

Will Win: Martin Scorsese, Another win that isn't questionable. The Emmys like movie people, and Scorsese is about as "movie" as you can get in this category.
Should Win: Tim Van Patten, He did a fantastic job shooting the premiere of Game of Thrones. It was very visually stunning.

Outstanding Writing for a Drama (Format: Writer- Episode -"Show")

Jason Katims- Always -"Friday Night Lights"
David Benioff and D.B. Weiss- Baelor -"Game of Thrones"
Veena Sud- Pilot -"The Killing"
Matthew Weiner- The Suitcase -"Mad Men"
Andre and Maria Jacquemetton- Blowing Smoke -"Mad Men"

Will and Should Win: Matthew Weiner, The Emmy voters should fall to the power of "The Suitcase", even if the Game of Thrones episode that was nominated here is perfectly deserving of an award.

Outstanding Comedy Series

"The Big Bang Theory"
"Modern Family"
"The Office"
"Parks And Recreation"
"30 Rock"

Will Win: "Modern Family", This comedy should have no trouble taking this award for the second year in a row. It has some competition from Parks and Recreation and 30 Rock, but it shouldn't be too much competition.
Should Win: "Parks and Recreation", This was arguably the best comedy of last season (it certainly batted 1.000 last year). The show is so good that I didn't even consider any of the other shows in this category above it (and most of them are good shows).

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy

Jim Parsons-"The Big Bang Theory"
Johnny Galecki-"The Big Bang Theory"
Matt LeBlanc-"Episodes"
Louis CK-"Louie"
Steve Carell-"The Office"
Alec Baldwin-"30 Rock"

Will Win: Steve Carell, "Goodbye Michael" is a very good episode for Carell. He has an episode that brings a wide range of emotion out of him. This will be an episode for which Emmy voters will vote. Plus, he's fantastic in it. He will face some very serious competition from Parsons (last year's winner), Baldwin (who won the two years before Parsons), and newcomer Louis CK, but he should be able to pull through.
Should Win: Louis CK, This was another very close call. I almost went for Carell, but there's something about Louis's performance on the show that is truly amazing. He is especially good in his submission episode "Bully".

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy

Laura Linney-"The Big C"
Melissa McCarthy-"Mike and Molly"
Edie Falco-"Nurse Jackie"
Amy Poehler-"Parks and Recreation"
Martha Plimpton-"Raising Hope"
Tina Fey-"30 Rock"

Will Win: Laura Linney, She's a previous Emmy favorite on a Showtime "comedy." That's a formula for success if I have ever seen one.
Should Win: Amy Poehler, If you have seen her submission episode "Flu Season," you will know my reason for choosing Poehler. She gives a fantastic performance on the show.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy

Chris Colfer-"Glee"
Jesse Tyler Ferguson-"Modern Family"
Ed O'Neill-"Modern Family"
Eric Stonestreet-"Modern Family"
Ty Burrell-"Modern Family"
Jon Cryer-"Two and a Half Men"

Will and Should Win: Chris Colfer, He is giving a fantastic performance on this show. He is heartbreaking in his submission episode. His performance is one that is above everyone else in the category. The only way he won't win is that his performance is in no way funny.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy

Jane Lynch-"Glee"
Betty White-"Hot in Cleveland"
Julie Bowen-"Modern Family"
Sofia Vargara-"Modern Family"
Kristen Wiig-"SNL"
Jane Krakowski-"30 Rock"

Will Win: Jane Lynch, She won last year and she's hosting the ceremony. The only one who could beat her is the (almost) unstoppable Betty White. Plus, Lynch's submission episode is a good showcase for her as an actress, even if it's not a good one for her as a character.
Should Win: Sofia Vargara, This was a very tough category because there's no one who is truly worthy of the award. There's no one who stands out as great. So I had to pick Vargara, who was the best of this particular bunch.

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series (Format: Director- Episode -"Show")

Pamela Fryman- Subway Wars -"How I Met Your Mother"
Michael Allen Spiller- Halloween -"Modern Family"
Gail Mancuso- Slow Down Your Neighbors -"Modern Family"
Steve Levitan- See You Next Fall -"Modern Family"
Beth McCarthy-Miller- Live Show -"30 Rock"

Will Win: Steve Levitan, His episode is a very good showcase of the visual style of Modern Family. It is a well directed episode of a show that the Emmys have showed that they love.
Should Win: Beth McCarthy-Miller, She had the very tough job of completely changing the visual style of the show and still having it feel like that show. She did this very well with the 30 Rock live show.

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series (Format: Writer- Episode -"Show")

David Crane and Jeffery Klarik- Episode 107 -"Episodes"
Louis CK- Poker/Divorce -"Louie"
Steve Levitan and Jeffery Richman- Caught in the Act -"Modern Family"
Greg Daniels- Goodbye, Michael -"The Office"
Matt Hubbard- Reaganing -"30 Rock"

Will Win: Steve Levitan and Jeffery Richman, Like the directing category, this is a very well written episode of a show that Emmy voters love. It should have no problem winning the category.
Should Win: Louis CK, He does things with his show that no one would even dream of doing. The conversation around the poker table was so brilliant that he deserves this award for that reason alone.

That's the list! Feel free to add your predictions in the comment section, or just wait for my live blog on Sunday.

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