Thursday, March 24, 2011

Will Your Favorite Shows be Renewed or Cancelled?: 2nd Edition

Tech week for my HS drama club show has prevented me from reviewing any new TV shows this week. To keep the blog going, I thought that I would update the Renew/Cancel post. All changes for the list are marked with an asterisk (*) and all the analysis has been updated as well. It all can be found after the jump.

The shows will have one of the following next to them:
  • Already Renewed (for shows with an early renewal)
  • Likely to be Renewed (for shows that have a greater then 50% chance of being renewed)
  • On the Bubble (for shows that could go either way in terms of renewal or cancellation
  • Likely to be Cancelled (for shows that have a less then 50% chance of being renewed)
  • Already Cancelled (for shows that have been cancelled by their respective network already)

The Bachelor: Likely to be Renewed
Better With You: Likely to be Cancelled
Brothers & Sisters: On the Bubble
Castle: Already renewed.
Cougar Town: Already renewed.
Dancing With the Stars: Likely to be Renewed
Desperate Housewives: Likely to be Renewed
Detroit 1-8-7: Likely to be Cancelled
Grey’s Anatomy: Already renewed.
The Middle: Already renewed
Modern Family: Already renewed
Mr. Sunshine: On the Bubble*
No Ordinary Family: Likely to be Cancelled
Off the Map: Likely to be Cancelled
Private Practice: Already renewed.
V: Likely to be Cancelled*

Like I said in the last post, ABC is not in the best of shape. They haven't premiered any successful new dramas in the past two years. This season, they only have one drama that is certain to be renewed that hasn't been (Desperate Housewives) and one marginal drama. The rest of the batch are probably not going to come back next year. I don't expect Paul Lee to be lenient with the shows that aren't doing very well.

 Detroit 1-8-7No Ordinary Family, and Off the Map are stone cold dead. There is no chance that the show will be back next year. Brothers and Sisters is ABC's only marginal show. This is a show that could go either way. Its ratings haven't been great, but they haven't been terrible either. It also is in its fifth season and the cast contracts are up. I could really see this show coming back but I could also see it getting cancelled. It probably depends on the quality ABC's pilots, if they have a great batch of pilots they might not need to renew this show. It took a lot of thought before I downgraded V. It's ratings are in teh range where it's just below the cancellation line. I don't think that ABC will renew an expensive, visual effects heavy show that is averaging below a 2.0 in the 18-49 demographic (which is what the networks use to set ad rates). I see this show as more likely to be cancelled then renewed.

On the comedy side, Better with You's ratings have been pretty bad, and it's the lowest rated show in the comedy block. It has almost no chance of coming back next year. Mr. Sunshine premiered well but its ratings have dropped. It also didn't increase very much following a new Modern Family after following repeats for two weeks. The only chance that this show has is if ABC expands its comedy hours next year, which Paul Lee has said that he wants to do.

Their last chance for a hit this year lies in Body of Proof which premieres on March 29th.

The Amazing Race: Already Renewed*
The Big Bang Theory: Already renewed.
Blue Bloods: On the Bubble
Criminal Minds: Likely to be Renewed
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior: On the Bubble
CSI: Likely to be Renewed
CSI: Miami: Likely to be Renewed*
CSI: NY: On the Bubble
The Defenders: Likely to be Cancelled
The Good Wife: On the Bubble
Hawaii Five-0: Likely to be Renewed
How I Met Your Mother: Already Renewed
Mad Love: Likely to be cancelled*
Medium: Already Cancelled
The Mentalist: Likely to be Renewed
Mike & Molly: Likely to be Renewed
NCIS: Already Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles: Likely to be Renewed
Rules of Engagement: Likely to be Renewed
$#*! My Dad Says: Likely to be Cancelled
Survivor: Already Renewed
Two and a Half Men: Technically Renewed
Undercover Boss: Already Renewed*

CBS is in the position, and has been for awhile, of having more shows that do well then they have room for on their schedule for next season. 

CBS likes to premiere 3-5 new dramas each year. Expect them to cancel four to five of their drama hours from this season in order to have room to debut these new shows. Medium and The Defenders will take two of those slots but two or three of Blue BloodsCSI: NY, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior or The Good Wife to be cancelled in order have room for them to debut new dramas for next year. I can't tell which one of these will be back, but I could see any combination of these shows coming back or getting cancelled. CSI: Sunglasses (aka the best comedy on TV right now) has improved, in the ratings, over the past couple of weeks. If it maintains those ratings over the next couple of weeks it will return next year. 

On the comedy side, there is no way Shit My Dad Says and Mad Love will be back next year. They are the lowest rated comedies in the block and their ratings are probably too low to swallow. They have 3 strong comedies (Big Bang TheoryHIMYM, and Mike & Molly) and one reliable benchwarmer (Rules of Engagement) to build around for next year and probably don't need to have them as a back up plan for Tow and a Half Men

Update 3.28.11: Undercover Boss and Amazing Race Renewed for next year.

90210: Likely to be Renwed
America’s Next Top Model: Likely to be Renewed
Gossip Girl: Likely to be Renewed
Hellcats: On the Bubble
Life Unexpected: Already Cancelled
Nikita: Likely to be Renewed
One Tree Hill: On the Bubble (for cast reasons only)
Shedding for the Wedding: Likely to be Cancelled
Smallville: Final Season
Supernatural: Likely to be Renewed
The Vampire Diaries: Likely to be Renewed

The CW has not aired any new episodes so everything has remained the same, and I'm keeping the same analysis.

The CW is in a position where they probably can't cancel more shows then have already been cancelled. It can only realistically launch two or three new shows next year which means that even the mediocre performers on the network will be back next year. If anything beyond Life Unexpected and Smallville is cancelled it will be Hellcats because of low ratings or One Tree Hill because of the cast and crew giving up and wanting to leave the show. There's also Shedding for the Wedding which will almost certainly not be back next year.

American Dad: Already renewed.
American Idol: Already Renewed
Bob’s Burgers: On the Bubble
Bones: Likely to be Renewed
Chicago Code: Likely to be Cancelled*
The Cleveland Show: Already renewed.
Family Guy: Likely to be Renewed
Fringe: Already Renewed*
Glee: Already renewed.
The Good Guys: Already Cancelled
House: Likely to be Renewed
Human Target: Likely to be Cancelled
Lie to Me: On the Bubble*
Raising Hope: Already renewed.
Running Wilde: Already canceled.
The Simpsons: Already renewed.
Traffic Light: Likely to be Cancelled

FOX is in the situation where it has more bubble shows then spots on the schedule next year.

FOX programs 10 hours between Monday and Friday (Sunday is their animated block and I don't see them changing that, ever). They already have committed to The X-Factor (2-3 hours) and Terra Nova (1 hour) for next year. On top of this they have House, Bones, Raising Hope, and Glee that either have been renewed or will be renewed for next year. That leaves room for one new comedy and one or two one-hour slots for next year. There will probably be a new drama thrown into one of them which leaves room for one show. This could be a Gordon Ramsey cooking show but it could also be a show whose ratings are marginal. At this point, I would say that Lie to Me and The Chicago Code are the only marginal shows on the network. Right now, I would put Lie to Me ahead of The Chicago Code because Lie to Me is closer to syndication. That's only a slim advantage though. I didn't want to downgrade Fringe but at its current level, I don't see the show being renewed for next year. It has to improve to at least a 1.5 in order to be renewed, which could happen. Even though it's a Friday show, FOX can only stomach a certain drop before they have to cancel the show. Human Target is dead, even if it did decently after American Idol

Update (4 hours later): Just as I downgrade Fringe, FOX renewed it for a fourth season. Woo Hoo!! While you celebrate, what does this mean for Lie to Me and The Chicago Code? I'm going to downgrade Chicago Code for now, but that may change as the weeks move on

30 Rock: Already renewed.
The Biggest Loser: Likely to be Renewed
The Cape: Already Cancelled
Celebrity Apprentice: Likely to be Renewed
Chase: Already Cancelled
Chuck: On the Bubble
Community: Already Renewed*
The Event: Likely to be Cancelled
Friday Night Lights: Final Season begins airing April 15th
Harry’s Law: Likely to be Renewed*
Law & Order: Los Angeles: (Can't say until April 12th, so On the Bubble for now) 
Law & Order: SVU: Likely to be Renewed
The Office: Already Renewed*
Outsourced: Likely to be Cancelled
Parenthood: Likely to be Renewed
Parks and Recreation: Already Renewed*
Perfect Couples: Likely to be Cancelled

NBC is a mess, there's no other way to say it. It's ratings are terrible and it has failed to produce a successful new show this season and hasn't produced a huge amount of shows with decent ratings over the past few years. Bob Greenblat has some major decisions to make as he tries to rebuild the network over the next few years, including which shows to renew and cancel.

On the drama side, NBC has two shows that are almost certain to return next year: Parenthood and Law and Order: SVU. Harry's Law has improved relative to NBC's average and now is more likely to be renewed then cancelled. If the show declines any more it might get cancelled but at its current level I see the show coming back next year. Chuck is really the only show that is on the bubble left. It has declined, but it has maintained the same relative position in terms of the rest of NBC. The production company is also a major factor in determining if Chuck comes back next year. They could discount the show slightly because the show is near syndication, which could be enough to allow the show to come back next year. I could see the show being either renewed (yay!) or cancelled (boo!)  Is The Event being cancelled the Event? If so then the Event will happen in May.

On the comedy side, The OfficeParks & Rec, and Community have all been renewed were all renewed last week. I had The Office and Parks and Rec as likely to be renewed and Community as on the bubble so I predicted these correctly! I'm glad to see that NBC is committed to good comedy. Perfect Couples and Outsourced will be cancelled at the end of the season. Perfect Couples is being removed from the schedule and the star of Outsourced has signed onto another pilot. Those are signs of sure cancellation. 

Like I said, NBC is a huge mess (the fact that Chuck could get another season shows this) and Robert Greenblat has some major decisions to make.

So that's a wrap on the second edition of this post. Have any thoughts on anything I discussed? Leave them in the comments.

(Note: I had typed this post and lost it completely so the rewrite is not as good (or as grammatically correct) as the original. Sorry for any mistakes folks).


  1. actually isn't perfect couples cancelled already?

  2. I was saving this for an update (later this week, probably Thursday), but yes Perfect Couples was effectively cancelled. This news didn't break until a week after I published this, so it wasn't included in this post.


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