Thursday, March 10, 2011

Will your Favorite Shows be Renewed or Cancelled?

Because everything is in repeats, I thought I would take a stab at predicting which shows are renewed or cancelled. I do check the ratings daily, so I have a good idea of what's in good shape and what isn't (I don't cover the ratings because there are many sites who do it very well). If I say your favorite show is being cancelled, it's nothing personal, I'm going about this from an objective standpoint. After the jump are the classifications I will be using, a list of all scripted shows plus some reality mixed in, and my predictions on whether the shows will be renewed or not. There is also some analysis of the network as a whole and some reasoning for my predictions.

The shows will have one of the following next to them:
  • Already Renewed (for shows with an early renewal)
  • Likely to be Renewed (for shows that have a greater then 50% chance of being renewed)
  • On the Bubble (for shows that could go either way in terms of renewal or cancellation
  • Likely to be Cancelled (for shows that have a less then 50% chance of being renewed)
  • Already Cancelled (for shows that have been cancelled by their respective network already)

The Bachelor: Likely to be Renewed
Better With You: Likely to be Cancelled
Brothers & Sisters: On the Bubble
Castle: Already renewed.
Cougar Town: Already renewed.
Dancing With the Stars: Likely to be Renewed
Desperate Housewives: Likely to be Renewed
Detroit 1-8-7: Likely to be Cancelled
Grey’s Anatomy: Already renewed.
The Middle: Already renewed
Modern Family: Already renewed

Mr. Sunshine: Likely to be Cancelled
No Ordinary Family: Likely to be Cancelled
Off the Map: Likely to be Cancelled
Private Practice: Already renewed.
V: On the Bubble

ABC is not in the best of shape, but it's not in the worst out of the broadcast networks. Every single new drama they premiered in the past two years has been cancelled or they are leaning towards cancellation and their big hits declining, they are in a sticky situation. But with a new head in town, I don't expect them to be lenient, if a show is doing badly it will be cancelled and replaced with a project developed under the new regime.

 Detroit 1-8-7, No Ordinary Family, and Off the Map are certain to be cancelled because their ratings, to be frank, are complete crap. Brothers and Sisters is doing pretty badly for the high profile timeslot that it has and it's cast has been reported many times to want out at the end of the current season, but it's ratings aren't complete crap. They have seriously declined, which is why the show is in danger. If it's back, it will be in a much lower profile timeslot (probably a weeknight at 10PM). V's renewal is probably dependent on episode order and how low Warner Bros. (the production company) is willing to go on the cost of the show. At this point, I could certainly see it being cancelled but I can also see it getting a similar renewal to what it had this season.

On the comedy side, Better with You's ratings have been pretty bad, and it's the lowest rated show in the comedy block. Mr. Sunshine premiered well but its ratings have dropped and it hasn't stabilized yet. Hope for both of these shows probably relies on whether ABC expands to two nights of comedy, leaving room for these two shows but that's a slim hope.

Their last chance for a hit this year lies in Body of Proof which premieres on March 29th.

The Amazing Race: Likely to be Renewed
The Big Bang Theory: Already renewed.
Blue Bloods: On the Bubble
Criminal Minds: Likely to be Renewed

Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior: On the Bubble
CSI: Likely to be Renewed
CSI: Miami: On the Bubble
CSI: NY: On the Bubble
The Defenders: Likely to be Cancelled
The Good Wife: On the Bubble
Hawaii Five-0: Likely to be Renewed
How I Met Your Mother: Already Renewed

Mad Love: On the Bubble
Medium: Already Cancelled
The Mentalist: Likely to be Renewed
Mike & Molly: Likely to be Renewed
NCIS: Already Renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles: Likely to be Renewed
Rules of Engagement: Likely to be Renewed
$#*! My Dad Says: Likely to be Cancelled
Survivor: Already Renewed
Two and a Half Men: Technically Renewed
Undercover Boss: Likely to be Renewed

CBS is in the position, and has been for awhile, of having more shows that do well then they have room for on their schedule for next season. 

Expect them to cancel four to five of their drama hours from this season in order to have room to debut new shows for next season. Medium and The Defenders will take two of those slots but two or three of Blue Bloods, CSI: NY, CSI: Miami, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior or The Good Wife to be cancelled in order have room for them to debut new dramas for next year. I can't tell which one of these will be back, but I could see any combination of these shows coming back next year.

On the comedy side, the only way Shit My Dad Says and Mad Love can be saved is if the show feels the need to have a backup plan that has already aired because of the whole Two and a Half Men situation. They have 3 strong comedies (Big Bang Theory, HIMYM, and Mike & Molly) and one reliable benchwarmer (Rules of Engagement) to build around for next year and probably don't need to have them, but they may bring back one of them as a backup plan, but again that's a very slim hope. If the Two and a Half Men situation wasn't happening they would both certainly be dead.

90210: Likely to be Renwed
America’s Next Top Model: Likely to be Renewed
Gossip Girl: Likely to be Renewed
Hellcats: On the Bubble
Life Unexpected: Already Cancelled
Nikita: Likely to be Renewed
One Tree Hill: On the Bubble (for cast reasons only)

Shedding for the Wedding: Likely to be Cancelled
Smallville: Final Season
Supernatural: Likely to be Renewed
The Vampire Diaries: Likely to be Renewed

The CW is in a position where they can't cancel more shows then have already been cancelled. It can only realistically launch two or three new shows next year which means that even the mediocre performers on the network will be back next year. If anything beyond Life Unexpected and Smallville is cancelled it will be Hellcats because of low ratings or One Tree Hill because of the cast and crew giving up and wanting to leave the show.

American Dad: Already renewed.
American Idol: Already Renewed
Bob’s Burgers: On the Bubble
Bones: Likely to be Renewed
Chicago Code: On the Bubble
The Cleveland Show: Already renewed.
Family Guy: Likely to be Renewed
Fringe: On the Bubble
Glee: Already renewed.

The Good Guys: Already Cancelled
House: Likely to be Renewed
Human Target: Likely to be Cancelled
Lie to Me: Likely to be Cancelled
Raising Hope: Already renewed.
Running Wilde: Already canceled.
The Simpsons: Already renewed.

Traffic Light: Likely to be Cancelled

FOX is in the situation where it has more bubble shows then spots on the schedule next year. It already has 3-4 hours of new programming committed plus 3.5 hours of returning (or certain to return) scripted shows. That leaves two or three empty hours for the schedule next year. I don't know if FOX has the room to bring back marginal shows such as Chicago Code or Fringe (which I would say is marginal for a Friday show, if it drops any more it will be cancelled). I have a feeling that if a show is renewed, it will be one of those two (I don't think Lie to Me will be back on next year's schedule, there's just not enough room and Human Target will be cancelled, there's no question about it). 

30 Rock: Already renewed.
The Biggest Loser: Likely to be Renewed

The Cape: Already Cancelled
Celebrity Apprentice: Likely to be Renewed
Chase: Already Cancelled
Chuck: On the Bubble
Community: On the Bubble
The Event: Likely to be Cancelled
Friday Night Lights: Final Season begins airing April 15th
Harry’s Law: On the Bubble
Law & Order: Los Angeles: (Can't say until April 12th, so On the Bubble for now) 
Law & Order: SVU: Likely to be Renewed
The Office: Likely to be Renewed
Outsourced: Likely to be Cancelled
Parenthood: Likely to be Renewed
Parks and Recreation: Likely to be Renewed
Perfect Couples: Likely to be Cancelled

NBC is a mess, there's no other way to say it. It's ratings are terrible, last week it averaged a 1.6 (which, for those of you who don't know, is pretty damn bad). It has failed to produce a successful new show this season and hasn't produced a huge amount of shows with decent ratings over the past few years. Bob Greenblat has some major decisions to make as he tries to rebuild the network over the next few years, including which shows to renew and cancel.

On the drama side, NBC has two shows that are almost certain to return next year: Parenthood and Law and Order: SVU. Other then those two shows, there' really nothing that's certainly safe for next year. Chuck and Harry's Law are on a similar playing field with neither one of those shows having a particular advantage. For Chuck it depends on the license fee, it's a cheap show so I can imagine it coming back next year, especially if WB discounts it. It's nearing syndication so there could be a fee cut for them next year. For Harry's Law I can't really tell what would help the show. It's clearly on the line between renewal and cancellation, it's a real wait and see for this show. Is The Event being cancelled the Event? If so then the Event will happen in May.

On the comedy side, The Office, Parks & Rec, and 30 Rock have all been renewed or will be renewed at the end of the year. I really want Community to come back next year and I think it will be back, it's ratings are at the high end of the bubble. Perfect Couples and Outsourced will be cancelled at the end of the season.

I don't know what will happen with this network, they may clean house or they may keep some shows as a backup plan. All I know is that there will be major changes in the future.

So that's a wrap on this post. Got any grievances or predictions of your own? Leave them in the comments.

1 comment:

  1. 30 rock and himym already renewed= #winning ! I know you don't like family guy but I hope that gets renewed too. Nice post Alex. Very informative!!! :o)


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