Monday, January 2, 2012

Will Your Favorite Show Be Renewed or Cancelled?: 1st Edition

Last season I did a series of posts on which shows on TV will be renewed and which series would be cancelled. Now, this series of posts has been "renewed" for the 2011-2012 season. (Frankly, they did better then most of my posts about normal television.) I will be posting one of these every 3-4 weeks.

What these posts are is a list of shows, my prediction of their fates, and analysis of my predictions for each of the broadcast networks. (I was asked to do this for cable, but it's just too difficult to predict those due to many other factors being involved.)

All that is after the jump.

The shows will have one of the following next to them:
  • Already Renewed (for shows with an early renewal)
  • Likely to be Renewed (for shows that have a greater then 50% chance of being renewed)
  • On the Bubble (for shows that could go either way in terms of renewal or cancellation
  • Likely to be Cancelled (for shows that have a less then 50% chance of being renewed)
  • Already Cancelled (for shows that have been cancelled by their respective network already)
  • Final Season (should be self explanatory)

Body of Proof: Likely to be Cancelled
Castle: Likely to be Renewed
Charlie's Angels: Already Cancelled
Desperate Housewives: Final Season
Grey's Anatomy: Likely to be Renewed
Happy Endings: Likely to be Renewed
Last Man Standing: On the Bubble
Man Up: Already Cancelled
The Middle: Likely to be Renewed
Modern Family: Likely to be Renewed
Once Upon a Time: Likely to be Renewed
Pan Am: Likely to be Cancelled
Private Practice: On the Bubble
Revenge: Likely to be Renewed
Suburgatory: Likely to be Renewed

ABC had a fall full of ups and downs. It debuted some very successful new series, while some of its veterans dropped massively. A lot of its season will hinge on how the flurry of midseason shows debut. 

On the drama side, the network had two major hits, but some failures as well. It also had some veterans drop. Once Upon a Time was a massive hit and if it holds at its current level, it will be back for years to come. Revenge has also been putting up some very strong numbers in a timeslot that has caused a lot of trouble for the network. On the negative side, Pan Am did not do well after Desperate Housewives. There is no chance it returns next season. In addition, Charlie's Angles bombed miserably. On the veterans, Castle and Grey's Anatomy are down, but not anywhere near cancellation level. Private Practice is looking like it will be the Brothers and Sisters of this season. That is the veteran that has the cushioned timeslot that is pulling mediocre ratings. Desperate Housewives is in its final season for a reason, its ratings are way down. 

On the comedy side, things are a little clearer. The entire Wednesday comedy block has very strong ratings and should be back in some capacity next year. Last Man Standing is not a massive hit, but its ratings are good enough for it to return next year. Man Up was cancelled.

2 Broke Girls: Likely to be Renewed
The Big Bang Theory: Already Renewed
Blue Blood: Likely to be Renewed
Criminal Minds: Likely to be Renewed
CSI: Likely to be Renewed
CSI: Miami: On the Bubble
CSI: NY: On the Bubble
A Gifted Man: On the Bubble
The Good Wife: On the Bubble
Hawaii Five-0: Likely to be Renewed
How I Met Your Mother: Already Renewed
How to be a Gentleman: Already Cancelled
The Mentalist: Likely to be Renewed
Mike & Molly: Likely to be Renewed
NCIS: Likely to be Renewed
NCIS: LA: Likely to be Renewed
Person of Interest: Likely to be Renewed
Rules of Engagement: Likely to be Renewed
Two and a Half Men: Likely to be Renewed
Unforgettable: On the Bubble

CBS had a very stable fall. Overall, the network is up marginally. Therefore, it looks like the network will be facing the same issue that it faces every year. That is it has to cancel 3-4 hours of programming to make room for new series. Usually this consists of canceling the lowest rated comedy each year and a few of their lower rated dramas. 

On the drama side, CBS has many sure things and quite a few uncertainties at this point. The usual suspects are certain for renewal, with NCIS, NCIS: LA, CSI, Criminal Minds, Hawaii Five-0, and The Mentalist in that category. Blue Bloods is the highest rated Friday drama. Because of that, I put it as likely to be renewed. Person of Interest isn't pulling spectacular numbers in a prime timeslot, but it isn't pulling awful numbers either. If those maintain, look for it to be back next year. Out of the lineup, I would consider five dramas to be amongst the 3-4 hours that CBS cancels every year. Those are CSI: Miami, CSI: NY, A Gifted Man, The Good Wife, and Unforgettable. If I had to guess right now, CSI: NY and A Gifted Man will be cancelled. Both of them are pulling mediocre numbers in a Friday timeslot, even with the Friday curve. These are my predictions for now. A lot could change over the next five months. 

On the comedy side, the network had a huge increase in numbers in its Monday comedy block. I would put all of those shows as likely to be renewed (if they're not renewed already). The Big Bang Theory has already been renewed, and a new show will probably be put there as a companion next fall (assuming ¡Rob! fails). At this point, I think Rules gets renewed as emergency filler. It has had the best track record of any series behind Big Bang. 

90210: On the Bubble
America's Next Top Model: Likely to be Renewed
Gossip Girl: On the Bubble
H8R: Thankfully, Cancelled
Hart of Dixie: Likely to be Renewed
Nikita: On the Bubble
One Tree Hill: Final Season
Ringer: On the Bubble
The Secret Circle: Likely to be Renewed
Supernatural: Likely to be Renewed
The Vampire Diaries: Likely to be Renewed

Just when I thought the ratings for the CW couldn't get any worse, they continued to drop. They're down in almost every demographic (according to the numbers I have). They face the very interesting issue of how many shows they wish to launch next season. There are only five shows that show a strong chance of being renewed at this time. That leaves five open timeslots, and how they fill those slots could decide which shows return next year.

In terms of shows that have a strong chance of being renewed, there are five at this moment. The Vampire Diaries continues to have the highest ratings on the CW. The Secret Circle has great numbers for the CW after the Vampire Diaries. Supernatural continues to pull high numbers for the CW in a Friday timeslot. America's Next Top Model continues to be the CW's only reality "hit". I don't see it going anywhere soon. Hart of Dixie has shown a favorable ratings bounce over its last few airings in 2011. If those numbers hold, renewal chances are high.

Those series leaves five open slots for the network. What the network does with the following shows could be determined by how many new series they wish to launch next season. As for which series are closest to cancellation, those would be Nikita and Gossip Girl. Nikita has the slight advantage because it is in a Friday timeslot, but its ratings are very low.  Gossip Girl is in its fifth season and is probably very expensive by this point. I would be surprised if it returns next year, but its ratings aren't low enough to predict certain cancellation. 90210 and Ringer have had ups and downs this year, but the ups are leaning towards the higher end of the bubble. 

Allen Gregory: Already Cancelled
American Dad: Already Renewed
Bones: Likely to be Renewed
The Cleveland Show: Already Renewed
Family Guy: Already Renewed
Fringe: On the Bubble
Glee: Likely to be Renewed
House: On the Bubble
I Hate My Teenage Daughter: Likely to be Cancelled
New Girl: Likely to be Renewed
Raising Hope: Likely to be Renewed
The Simpsons: Already Renewed
Terra Nova: On the Bubble
The X Factor: Already Renewed

FOX actually had a very good fall. It didn't quite meet expectations, but it was up 14% from last year. I consider that a win for FOX. Thinking towards next season, the network is going to have a very CBS-esque issue. It's not going to have enough space to bring back all of its programming. It's going to have some decisions to make over the course of the next five months.

There are two dramas whose renewal decisions will be made in the next month. What I'm hearing is that a decision on Terra Nova will be made over the next month or so. Right now, I have it firmly on the bubble. It's ratings are just high enough above the automatic cancellation threshold that it's not likely to be cancelled, but the numbers in the low 2s that it pulled in its final few episodes aren't at a likely renewal level either. What's for it is that the actor options were picked up for next season, that's normally a sign that a renewal is on its way. On the other side, the show costs a crapload of money to produce. It's too close to call either way at this moment. The other drama that we should be hearing a decision on soon is House. The reality is the ratings are solid, but not what they used to be and many members of the cast and crew are on the final years of their contracts. It also costs a massive amount of money to produce, and it would just get more expensive as time goes on. I don't imagine this show returning next year, but I'm leaving it on the bubble for now. 

Other FOX dramas include the likely to be renewed Glee and Bones. Both shows are doing fine and should be back next year. The last drama on the list is Fringe. That show was renewed with mediocre Friday numbers last year. This year, it's not doing very well in terms of ratings, dropping slightly from last year. The reason why I have it on the bubble is that I don't know how low FOX is willing to go in terms of ratings. I could see the decision going either way.

On the comedy side, all of the current animated comedies have their fates decided already. New Girl debuted very well and will be renewed for many years to come if its numbers hold. The critically panned (and impossible to watch) I Hate My Teenage Daughter has not done well behind X Factor and may not be back in the spring, let alone next season. The only possible question mark is Raising Hope. As of right now, I consider its ratings strong enough for it to return next season. However, if it drops even a little, it won't be an automatic renewal. 

Chuck: Final Season
Community: Likely to be Renewed
Free Agents: Already Cancelled
Grimm: Likely to be Renewed
Harry's Law: Likely to be Cancelled
Law and Order: SVU: Likely to be Renewed
The Office: Likely to be Renewed
Parenthood: Likely to be Renewed
Parks and Recreation: Likely to be Renewed
The Playboy Club: Already Cancelled
Prime Suspect: Already Cancelled
Up All Night: On the Bubble
Whitney: On the Bubble

I know I'm joining the chorus here, but this network is a complete and total mess. The network only launched two "hits" this season. Like last season, the network is putting the hope for its entire season on The Voice. They're hoping that that series returns at the level it did last season, and that it can launch a new hit drama in Smash. 

Quite frankly, the NBC drama department needs a hit because they only have one right now. Parenthood and SVU are pulling numbers that would get them cancelled on any other network, but they're the top dramas on NBC. They only thing that they have that's close to a hit is Grimm. Its ratings are great for NBC Friday and if they maintain, the show should be back next year. Harry's Law's numbers are incredibly low in the 18-49 demographic. They will try to relaunch the show on Sunday, but that probably won't work. 

On the comedy side, the network is suffering a major drop from its biggest hit, and it only launched a middling hit. The Office has dropped significantly from last season, but it is still the highest rated series on NBC. Up all Night launched to decent numbers for NBC, but its Thursday numbers will be more important to renewal. It's on the bubble awaiting numbers from Thursday. Whitney premiered high, but dropped quickly but its Wednesday numbers will be the deciding factor in its renewal potential. Parks and Recreation performed decently (for NBC) this fall, and should be back next year. Then, there's Community. This show has been pulled from the air, but it's a season away from syndication. I think that this show will be renewed for next year because Sony has been known to essentially give shows away to reach that syndication marker. 

That's the post. If you have any thoughts on my predictions or predictions of your own, feel free to share them in the comments. 

Target for Next Post: The Monday after the Super Bowl (February 6)

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